A historical counter-factual

Now that the IBAF has reformed the qualification system for the Olympic baseball tournament, only one thing is certain for the top European national teams: the 2007 European Championships will be the hardest-fought ever. Only the winner of that tournament is assured of a place in Beijing.

Here's what would have happened if the new system had been in place during the 2003 qualifying tournaments:

In Europe, only the champions, the Netherlands, would have qualified automatically, along with Cuba and Canada from the Americas and Japan from Asia.

The second-phase global qualifying tournament would have featured Europe's third- and fourth place teams, Greece and Spain, along with Austalia, Chinese Taipei, Mexico, Puerto Rico, South Korea, South Africa. The Europeans would have struggled to finish in the necessary top three against this tough field. China is assured the final place as the host country.

Interestingly, even this system would not have afforded the USA a second chance after their dissapointing performance in their Olympic qualifier in Panama.